Week Ahead 9/15/2014

Fed meet. Interest rates, as is tradition, means a jittery market leading to announcements vis a vis interest rate rise. Cue in a dip in equity markets all around.

Europe takes yet another step forwards in its game of chicken with Russia. Expectation of asymmetric steps, my guess is closing airspace and perhaps clothing. (Short on airline stocks?)
Despite the slide of the ruble, think it's unlikely to persuade the central bank to raise rates.

Short Euro as well. If pushed too much Russia might just leave the spectre of a very cold winter as a bargaining chip. Which is to say this mini trade war will not last halfway through the winter, expecting Europe to withdraw the sanctions before Nov and Russia responding in kind.

A tense referendum at the end of the week to weigh on Europe. I've got 10$ on the No (I suspect the HMS treasury has a bit more on the line) (Pound to take a further beating at the start of the week? am betting for Scotland to stay, it will see a recovery.)

Scotland does poses most of britian's oil reserves, however that's a pithy compared to oil run econonmies like Norway. With the chancellor ruling out the possibility of a currency union and major banks shifting bases to London. Scotland would very likely be looking at a big recession.

If Scots(pro EU) do manage to breakaway, we could see England snap its ties with Brussels a couple of years down the line.

India surprisingly posts industry growth below expectations. Massive rains. (Will perhaps ease food inflation? Nudge to the reserve bank perhaps later. Also could be the cause of stalled construction and manuf.) Accompanied by the Fed's comments of the fin sector underestimating the impact of the pull back of QE. The bombay index along with EM could slide downwards at the start of the week.



-Posted by Akshay