Some thoughts on Scotland referendum

Scotland will hold a referendum on this Thursday, deciding if it will separate from the Britain after 307 years of union.



There are many repurcussions of Scottish independence. Scotland is currently in the Great Britain's union with tight economic and political association.

First, Scotland is in the economic union with England and Wales, and using the uniform currency - British Pound - which is a huge plus for them. As next to England, who is one of the largest economies in the world, Scotland benefits much from this proximity and economic ties. EU is basically a structure that tries to mimic the economic union of the Great Britain - having a uniform currency, uniform monetary policies, and enhanced labor and capital mobility. So does many other economic unions that trying to work toward this way. So if Scotland separates from the Britain, they will probably lose all these advantages.


Secondly, the Great Britain runs under one constitution. Commerce and trade happened under one identical rules, and almost there is no excessive regulations. If Scotland were to become independent, Scotland would have to establish a new Constitution - said to take effect in March 24, 2016. A whole new political system will prevent fully smooth economic interaction.

Many people think Scotland's independence is very risky.  Economists seems divided in their opinions. Paul Krugman disagree with Scotland's decision of independence and thinks it's a big mistake. Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stieglitz actually supports Scotland's independence from economic perspective.

 I believe the political reason is bigger than the economic reason for the Scottish separation. For separatists, an independent Scotland will offer more power to the Scottish people, whose population is roughly 5 million. The form of government for Scotland is still unclear, whether they will form a federalism like the US, a constitutional like the UK, or a republic like Italy and Ireland. Such there are many many more things Scotland needs to figure out if they become independent.


On a economic side, Scotland will probably not benefit from this unhooking. England and Scotland combined is now the 6th largest economy in the world. If Scotland leaves, it will become the 43th largest economy, while England only slips from 6th to 7th. Scotland will probably lose the close linkage with England, and become more vulnerable to the economic instability. England will probably not suffer too much, as their GDP is some more than 2 trillion dollars, almost ten times the size of Ireland. However, three major parties' leaders of the UK all express their will to retain Scotland on board, surprisingly, and have promised more political power for Scotland if Scotland stays.After all, the Queen of England remained neutral, and  said it's the choice of the Scottish people.

The separation is" risky, and will not be reversible" said David Cameron.  In the end it comes to the decision of Scottish people - all citizens 16 years old or above. They need to trade off between economic risks and political independence, and that's how democracy works.


-Zhipeng