NYTimes blog post
Upshot has really informational interpretations on the US dollars lately appreciation. Upshot posts really really funny and nice information about politics, economies, sports etc., that is really easy to read and entertaining. I extremely highly recommend to follow it.
The NYTimes article listed two graphs: one is USD vs. major currencies values since July; and the other is economic growth outlook for major economies.
In the first graph, USD is appreciating against all major currencies with the exception of CNY. The appreciation is almost 8% for the major currencies in 3 months. (For CNY, it is depreicating by about 2%). On the economy side, US GDP growth is increasing by more than 0.5% compared to expectations. Other economies such as EU is growing slower by -0.3% compared to expectations, Germany, France are below expectations and Japan is the slowest with -0.7% relative to expectations.
This has true economic impact. USD is now becoming the most sought after currency in the world lately. This means investors are having better prospect for the US economy. In addition, the US economies are expanding at 4.5% qoq and believed to be stronger than expectation. NY Fed Chairman William Dudley for the first time confirmed the real impact on the economy.
US exports statistics since July is
here. Stronger USD should lead to a mitigated exports. But data in July and August hasn't show any slow down in exports. I predict that exporting business is definitely getting affected in contract volume. Perhaps it is going to take some time to show this trend in data and this trend will appear in the next few months.
A more in depth analysis can be found on
this blog.
